1. Problem

Unlock schedules are often discussed as if the shape is obvious, but small changes in timing, tranche size, and allocation mix can change sell pressure dramatically. The team needed a scenario surface, not a static vesting table.

2. Approach

I built a compact simulator that crossed multiple unlock patterns and supply assumptions so the downstream effects on price pressure and allocation behavior could be compared quickly.

  • Model multiple schedule shapes rather than arguing about one preferred option.
  • Translate schedules into comparable pressure and allocation views.
  • Keep the tool lightweight enough for rapid governance discussion.

3. Evidence

Investor unlock sell pressure plot
The sell-pressure view turned a governance conversation about fairness into a discussion about actual system behavior.
Allocation pie charts
Allocation visuals helped show how the schedule changed who was bearing the economic weight over time.

4. Outcome

The simulator gave the team a fast way to compare alternatives and made vesting design more defensible because the scenarios could be challenged explicitly.

5. Tech stack

  • Python simulation scripts
  • Pandas and NumPy for scenario handling
  • Matplotlib for communication-friendly charts

6. Useful links

7. Related reading

8. Call to action

If your token, incentive, or vesting design still lives in a static spreadsheet, I can help turn it into a scenario model people can pressure-test.